Monday 21 May 2012

The penalty shootout - how to beat the odds

With Euro 2012 entering it's final stages, much discussion has, once again, focused on the penalty shootout. England, with all their psychological baggage related to this subject, have openly stated how they are increasing their penalty practice in training. They have been eliminated from major tournaments 5 times since the 1990 World Cup on a penalty shootout decider. Viewed as a lottery by some and an unfair way to decide a major competition by others – there is no denying the drama and excitement they provide. Chelsea memorably claimed their first Champions League title this season by virtue of a penalty shootout win over Bayren Munich.


Indeed, penalty shootouts have, in recent times, been required to decide many major tournaments. Quarter- and semi-finals aside, this season was the 3rd time since 2005 that penalties have decided the club champions of Europe. This year also, Zambia have claimed the African Cup of Nations on a penalty shootout (beating Didier Drogba’s Ivory Coast 8-7), while only 3 days before Chelsea’s dramatic win, The Netherlands claimed the European U17 title beating Germany 5-4 on penalties in the final. Other major competitions decided this way in the past include both a European Championships final (Czechoslovakia v Germany, 1976) and World Cup finals (Italy v France, 2006; Brazil v Italy, 1994). Clearly, in an age of improving tactics and defensive abilities, penalty kicks are becoming increasingly important. The question on everybody’s mind in the aftermath, of course, is how a professional footballer can miss a clear shot at goal from only 12 yards away.

A penalty shootout is, by its very nature, a highly pressurised situation. Whether it’s a European Championships, a Champions League final or a Saturday morning kickabout, in a penalty kick situation the pressure on the individual to score is huge. All the focus is on that one individual; the keeper, after all, is not expected to save it. As discussed in a previous Heads Up blog (World Snooker Final 2012), pressurised situations increase an individual's anxiety level. Before we delve into the penalty situation, perhaps it’s worth looking at the phenomenon of anxiety a little more closely  – to understand more clearly how it can cause a highly talented player to fail on the simplest of tasks.

Anxiety is defined as “a negative emotional state with feelings of nervousness, worry, and apprehension associated with activation or arousal of the body”1. It is the result of highly stressful situations (specifically termed state anxiety), where an individual feels they cannot cope with the demands of that situation. We experience state anxiety all the time in our daily lives; whether you are the student preparing for a difficult exam or the trainee preparing for a job interview. It is associated with higher levels of arousal in the body, one of our most basic responses. At its lowest level, while we are fast asleep, we experience little arousal. Our heart beats slowly, our breathing is deep and relaxed, our body temperature drops and our alertness is decreased. Elevations in arousal are associated with a very primitive reaction to stress termed “Fight or Flight”. When we experience stress, arousal is designed to give us the tools to respond to the situation. For the primitive human, stress came in the form of a wild animal, or a raging forest fire. In those situations, you either stood and fought for survival, or you took flight and ran for your life!

Our primitive arousal response gave us the vital resources we needed to live in both situations. As adrenaline surges through the body, heart rate is elevated to pump oxygen and nutrient rich blood to your muscles, while breathing increases to supply more oxygen. Muscles tense up, providing strength and power, while the pupils of the eyes dilate to increase visual input and provide more information on your surroundings. The brain also increases its ability to process this information and make rapid decisions. All these are positive responses and explain why, in a sporting context, a little arousal is necessary. We need it to perform well. After all, sport is “fight or flight” in the modern age and so the player prepares for combat by “psyching” himself up, preparing both mind and body.

However, beyond a certain point, when arousal becomes too high, many of these responses become a disadvantage. When we get too “psyched-up” or too nervous, our performance begins to suffer. This is termed over-arousal, and the point where anxiety begins to cause problems. The muscles become too tense and affect coordination. Our brain becomes overloaded with too much information, and so we make poor judgments and bad decisions. Our heart pounds, our breathing becomes short and shallow, our palms clammy and we might even feel sick. This is over-arousal, and can be detrimental to performance.

To fully understand how arousal affects the sports person we also need to understand the sporting context. For sports like golf or snooker where fine, delicate judgments of pace and direction are required, the player needs to be calm and more relaxed. Lower levels of arousal are essential in this situation. The opposite is true of a professional wrestler. To perform at his best, he needs a higher level of arousal. We would, after all, feel slightly worried if we saw Rory McIlroy take to the first tee beating his chest, ripping his shirt off and yelling a primal “come-on” to the fans! Each sport and each situation within a sport requires a different optimal level of arousal, below or above which performance is compromised. The graph (right) depicts this relationship between arousal and performance, and is known as the Inverted-U theory of arousal. When arousal gets too high, and we feel we can no longer deal with the situation – we experience anxiety, and performance can suffer badly!

Back to penalty shootouts then. Uniquely in football, a penalty kick is a situation where a player needs to be at a slightly lower level of arousal than normal to perform better. In a penalty situation, the key demands are accuracy and fine judgment of pace and position. Ideally, the penalty taker is a little more relaxed, or confident enough in their abilities to be able to cope successfully. When the pressure of the situation increases and when players do not cope with these increasing demands – then we see the effects of anxiety on performance. Many factors can increase a player’s anxiety in this situation. Interestingly, a study in the Journal of Sport Psychology in 20062 showed that those players who felt the shootout was more of a “lottery”, and the result down to luck, felt more anxious when taking a kick and were more likely to miss. These players did not feel they were in control of the outcome of the penalty situation, and because of this feeling – lack of control – anxiety levels were increased. Additionally these players may be less likely to practice taking penalties, believing that it will not influence the outcome. The key point here is to realise that players are more in control of whether they score or not and that practice will improve performance - perhaps the thinking behind Roy Hodgson's proclomation that England have stepped up their penalty kick preparations going into Euro 2012's knockout phase.

 


But that still does not tell us why a player will fail to score. For this, we need to look at the types of misses that tend to happen. First are the players who miss the target completely – those who blaze the ball high and wide. Statistics from elite level competition3 show that the most successful penalties are those placed in the upper third of the goal, to the keepers left or right. In an analysis of almost 300 top level penalties, 13% were placed here, and all scored – leaving the keeper with virtually no chance of saving the shot. In contrast, 12% of kicks to the middle third and almost 20% of kicks to the bottom third of the goal tend to be saved. While this seems straighforward, it's important to realise that placing a kick in the top left or right corner of the goal is a difficult task. Even the slightest increase in muscle tension can affect coordination, impacting on both accuracy and control. So the anxious player might put a little too much power on the kick, or direct it slightly off the intended target and miss. Anybody remember Chris Waddle's conversion attempt at the 1990 World Cup? Have a look here (2:26 in) and you'll see what I mean!
Next we look at those players who take the feeble penalty, usually aimed directly toward the keeper. In 2009, researchers from the University of Exeter4 investigated how a pressured penalty kick situation affected the anxiety and attention of players. They measured attention by using a device which was able to track the eye movements of players, thus revealing what the player was visually focusing on. As expected, players tended to experience more anxiety when the pressure of the kick increased. However, most interesting was the affect this had on what players tended to look at. In a low pressure situation, players tended to look at the open spaces in the corners of the goal. This was, after all, where they wanted to place the ball and, on average, they were more successful at doing so when the pressure was lowest. However, in pressurised conditions, the players tended to look at the goalkeeper to a greater extent. As a result, more penalties were directed closer to the keeper and so, were easier to save. Both the Mata and Olic penalty misses in this season's Champions League final might well fall into this category (Click here to view the shootout in full).

The researchers concluded that in pressurised situations, our attention tends to be drawn naturally to the most threatening object in our visual field. Consider the postman, for example, attempting to deliver a letter when confronted with a growling dog. Will his attention stay on the letterbox, or will it be drawn toward the snarling dog? The answer is obvious and essentially it is the same for the footballer. Their attention is drawn to that one thing they fear will stop them from scoring the penalty – the goalkeeper. And so, we see keepers doing everything in their power to draw that attention (anybody remember Liverpool goalkeeper Bruce Grobbelaar’s spaghetti legs in the 1984 European Cup final shootout?). Because visual attention and our resulting actions are closely linked, this study explains why so many players tend to shoot so feebly, and so close to the keeper when they do miss. In the aftermath of this season's Champions League final, Arjen Robben (who missed a penalty in extra-time for Bayern) was quoted as saying “'It wasn't a good penalty. I wanted to shoot the ball hard and high in the goal, but the ball didn't go high enough. It was a terrible penalty kick.”

Research also indicates that in the context of a penalty shootout, more successful players (in terms of trophies, awards, etc) also appear to be at a psychological disadvantage. A fascinating investigation undertaken by Norwegian researchers in 20095 looked at the penalty shootout records of the 8 most successful European nations (in terms of club and international competition). It was suggested that, because they are viewed as successful, these players will tend to have bigger “egos”. As a result, in a situation like a penalty where failure is likely, these players have more to lose because people expect more from them and so the situation, for them, may be more pressurised. The results of the investigation showed that those countries (England, Netherlands, Italy) with the most decorated players at the time of the study (in terms of Champions League titles and awards) were the least successful in terms of international penalty shootouts, the implication being that more is expected of these players and so pressure is greatest on them in this situation. Interestingly, England (won 1, lost 5) and Italy (won 2, lost 5) have two of the worst penalty shootout records of the leading nations in international competition!

It is also noteworthy that these players also tended to spend less time taking their penalties, suggesting a desire to get the situation “over and done with” and also showed greater avoidance behaviour (not wanting to view the situation they were faced with) by turning their back to the goals or looking downward before taking the kick. England are a prime example here. While their club sides have been very successful in European competition, the national team has lost 5 of its 6 penalty shootouts in World or European championships since 1990. It is also interesting to consider that both Christiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, arguably the two best players in European football, both missed penalty kicks during this season’s Champions League semi-finals.

Of course, the goalkeeper also has a vital role to play in the penalty situation. As mentioned, modern day goalkeepers wear bright, often garish tops designed to attract the visual attention of players, while standing doing a version of Riverdance on the goal-line. Study closely modern goalkeepers during penalty shootouts and you will see both frenzied movements and bright colours used to attract player’s attention. Interestingly, while keepers tend to dive for penalty kicks most of the time (94% of kicks), they only guess correctly 40% of the time. A goalkeeper’s chances of saving a penalty are statistically better when they choose not to dive, with 60% of shots placed in this area being saved3. Remember anxious players tend to shoot more toward the centre of the goal if the keeper has succeeded in attracting their focus of attention. However, keepers tend to dive for a number of reasons. It can take anywhere from half a second to one second for a goalkeeper to complete their dive. A well struck penalty can cross the goal line in 0.4 of a second6. So clearly, the advantage is with the kicker and keepers may feel they have to anticipate where the ball will be placed. It has also been suggested that goalkeepers feel they need to perform some action during the penalty kick situation – even if they are guessing which direction to dive. Afterall, it is better to dive and choose the wrong side, than remain static and appear as if you are not attempting anything!  As with everything, however, knowledge and mental training can reduce the guesswork goalkeepers have to make.

In order to anticipate correctly, a goalkeeper needs to focus on a number of important factors to make a correct decision. Research7 has shown that a penalty taker will often use the angle of their run up to try to deceive the goalkeeper – pretending to be going one way, then kicking to the opposite side. Didier Drogba takes a slightly different approach, favouring virtually no run up, thus giving the goalkeeper little idea of what he is about to do – resulting in Manuel Neuer guessing the wrong way for the decisive penalty in this season's CL final. What is important, however, are the leg and foot movements of the kicker as they are about to kick the ball. These will directly indicate where the player is going to kick the ball, and so possibly give the goalkeeper that fraction of a second longer to dive and save a penalty. For a goalkeeper, training in this area is effectively learning what to look for, and what to ignore.

So there are many take home messages on penalty shootouts that sport psychology research can teach us. For the penalty kicker, it is important to practice taking penalties, and favour kicking in the upper left, or right, segments of the goal. As with rugby place kickers, discussed in a previous Heads Up post, players need to develop a routine with which they are well rehearsed and comfortable. Once they decide what way they are going to kick the ball, they need to remain focused on this, and ignore the goalkeeper. While pressurised situations are difficult to set up in practice, psychological techniques like imagery and visualisation can be used to mentally practice these situations and help the player retain focus and a feeling of control. Psychological techniques can also be used to lower arousal and anxiety levels. These may include breathing techniques or techniques to control self-talk.

On the opposite side, goalkeepers need to make themselves as visually attractive as possible. Wear bright clothing and move as much as possible on the line (waving hands, etc) to distract the kicker. While it may be possible for a keeper to anticipate the direction of a kick based on close observation of the kickers action, it may sometimes be better to stay patient as a nervous kicker may, inadvertently, be aiming directly at you! Either way, the biggest battle in a penalty situation is often the internal battle waged inside the mind of the player. Sport Psychology training provides players with everything they need to win this battle and increase their chances of success when on the spot.

1.  Weinberg, R.S. & Gould, D. (2007). Foundations of Sport and Exercise Psychology. Human Kinetics.
2. Jordet, G., Elferink-Gemser, M.T., Lemmink, K.A.P.M., & Visscher, C. (2006). The “Russian roulette” of soccer?: Perceived control and anxiety in a major tournament penalty shootout. International Journal of Sport Psychology, 37, 281–298.

3. Bar-Eli, M., Azar, O.H. (2009). Penalty kicks in soccer: an empirical analysis of shooting strategies and goalkeepers preferences. Soccer & Society, 10, 183-191.
4. Wilson, M.R., Wood, G & Vine, S.J. (2009). Anxiety, attention control, and performance impairment in penalty kicks. Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 31, 761-775.
5.  Jordet, G (2009). Why do England players fail in penalty shootouts? A study of team status, self-regulation, and choking under pressure. Journal of Sport Sciences, 27(2), 97-106.

6. Bar-Eli, M., Azar, O.H., Ritov, I., Keidar-Levin, Y. & Schein, G. (2007). Action bias among elite soccer goal keepers: the case of penalty kicks. Journal of Economic Psychology, 28, 606-621.
7. Dicks, M., Uehara, L., Lima, C (2011). Deception, Individual differences and penalty kicks: Implications for goalkeepers in Association Football. International Journal of Sport Science and Coaching, 6(4), 515-521


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